TMCC Strategic Enrollment Management Plan (2017-2020)

22 Environmental Scan TMCC’s enrollment is impacted by a variety of internal and external factors and trends. The following external factors may have significant implications for TMCC’s enrollment: Population growth By 2019, the area that includes Carson City, Douglas, Lyon, Storey and Washoe Counties is expected to reach population growth of total 7.1 percent, or 1.4 percent growth per year. The population is projected to get more diverse but older. Lowunemployment and economic growth Job growth is forecasted for the area from low end projections of 47,400 to higher end estimates of 56,600 additional jobs from 2015-2019 for the five counties mentioned above. TMCC’s immediate service area of Reno-Sparks is forecasted to see job growth from 6% to 33%. Projected growth is expected to be characterized by a diverse and more technologically advanced economy, which will require an increasingly skilled and educated labor force. Even though, generally, low unemployment rate tends to depress college enrollment, growth and diversification of local economy may provide enrollment growth opportunities for the College. WCSD enrollment and graduation Nationally, according to the December 2016 WICHIE (Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education) report: “The steady growth in high school graduates that led to significant expansion of higher education in the U.S. in recent decades is coming to an abrupt halt. While the number of graduates grew 30 percent from 1995 to 2013, the number of high school graduates is expected to show virtually no growth for the next seven years, and will likely decline this school year.” The report goes on to say “The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates in the U.S. will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population of graduates, fueled primarily by large increases in the number of Hispanic (50 percent) and Asian/Pacific Islander (30 percent) public high school graduates through about 2025.” · The number of high school graduates is expected to stall for the next 7 years but the racial ethnicmix is expected to change. · We are expecting large increases inHispanic (50%) andAsian/Pacific Islander (30%) high school students through 2025. According to the local Washoe County School District, they are expecting an additional 5,318 new students by 2019. It is projected that the district is poised to exceed average pre-recession enrollment growth rates of 3.5%. WCSD continues to increase its graduation rates reaching 76.6% in 2016. Source: Northern Nevada Regional Growth Study 2015-2019, EPIC report Source: Oversight Panel for School Facilities, “Enrollment Growth and School Facility Needs” report, 2015